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Spinning the climate model – observation comparison: Part II
by Judith Curry IPCC model global warming projections have done much better than you think. – Dana Nuccitelli Last February, I wrote a post Spinning the climate model – observation comparison, where I...
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Implications for climate models of their disagreement with observations
by Judith Curry How should we interpret the growing disagreement between observations and climate model projections in the first decades of the 21st century? What does this disagreement imply for the...
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Workshop on the Roles of Climate Models
by Judith Curry I am in the Netherlands, attending a Workshop on The Roles of Climate Models: Epistemic, Ethical, and Socio-political Perspectives. I am particularly excited to meet many researchers...
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How far should we trust models?
by Judith Curry In economics, climate science and public health, computer models help us decide how to act. But can we trust them? – Jon Turney Aeon has a very good article by Jon Turney entitled A...
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UK-US Workshop Part IV: Limits of climate models for adaptation decision making
by Judith Curry This post discusses Workshop presentations on the utility of climate models for regional adaptation decisions. This post is a follow-on to the two previous posts: UK-US Workshop on...
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How simple is simple?
by Tomas Milanovic This essay has been motivated by Isaac Held’s paper [link] arguing for possible emerging simplicity or even linearity in climate dynamics. Indeed a cursory observation of climatic...
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The heart of the climate dynamics debate
by Judith Curry Lennart Bengtsson’s recent statement on climate research has elicited a response from Andy Lacis, that directly points to the fundamental debate in climate dynamics. In his statement...
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On the AR4′s projected 0.2C/decade temperature increase
by Judith Curry “For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2C per decade is expected for a range of emission scenarios.” – IPCC AR4 In response to my post on Steven Hayward, Hayward is being...
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Model structural uncertainty – are GCMs the best tools?
by Judith Curry Rarely are the following questions asked: Is the approach that we are taking to climate modeling adequate? Could other model structural forms be more useful for advancing climate...
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Will a return of rising temperatures validate the climate models?
by Donald C. Morton The coincidence of the current plateau in global surface temperatures with the continuing rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has raised many questions about the...
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Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts
by Judith Curry There is growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing forecasts that fill the gap between medium range weather forecasts (up to two weeks)...
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Questioning the robustness of the climate modeling paradigm
by Judith Curry Are climate models the best tools? A recent Ph.D. thesis from The Netherlands provides strong arguments for ‘no’. The usefulness of GCM climate models, particularly for projections,...
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New research on atmospheric radiative transfer
by Judith Curry Three new papers highlight how atmospheric radiative transfer, particularly how it is treated in climate models, is not ‘settled science.’ The greatest uncertainties in simulating...
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Climate models versus climate reality
by Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenberger Perhaps the most frank example of the growing disconnection between forecast and observed climate change was presented by University of Alabama’s John Christy to...
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Climate models and precautionary measures
by Judith Curry Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb Nassim Taleb has posted an essay entitled Climate models and precautionary...
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Huge efficacy of land use forcing in one GISS-E2-R simulation: is an ocean...
by Nic Lewis In a recent article here, which summarised a longer piece at ClimateAudit, I discussed the December 2015 Marvel et al.[1] paper, which contends that estimates of the transient climate...
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On the likelihood of recent record warmth
by Judith Curry [O]ur results suggest that the recent record temperature years are are roughly 600 to 130,000 times more likely to have occurred under conditions of anthropogenic than in its absence....
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Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program
by Judith Curry The first 20 years. The American Meteorological Society is publishing an online monograph The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: The first 20 Years. So far, the monograph...
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The art and science of climate model tuning
by Judith Curry We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in...
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Climate policy: Fake it ’til you make it
by Judith Curry The economic models that are used to inform climate policy currently contain an unhealthy dose of wishful thinking. Technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the air are assumed in...
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Global climate models and the laws of physics
by Dan Hughes We frequently see the simple statement, “The Laws of Physics”, invoked as the canonical summary of the status of the theoretical basis of GCMs. We also see statements like, “The GCM...
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Lorenz validated
by Kip Hansen Some reflections on NCAR’s Large Ensemble. In her latest Week in review – science edition, Judith Curry gave us a link to a press release from the National Center for Atmospheric Research...
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Generating regional scenarios of climate change
by Judith Curry This post is about the practical aspects of generating regional scenarios of climate variability and change for the 21st century. The challenges of generating useful scenarios of...
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Determinism and predictability
by Tomas Milanovic There are few scientific concepts that are more often misunderstood in blog debates than Determinism and Predictability. For many commenters, these two concepts are considered to be...
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Climate modelers open up their black boxes to scrutiny
by Judith Curry Paul Voosen has written a remarkable article in Science about climate model tuning. Background In November 2009 following ClimateGate, I made a public plea for greater transparency in...
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Climate models for lawyers
by Judith Curry I have been asked to write an Expert Report on climate models. ***SEE UPDATE UPDATE: A final version of the report is attached [climate-models]. Thanks a ton to all who provided...
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Prospects for a Prolonged Slowdown in Global Warming in the Early 21st Century
by Nic Lewis [W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%,...
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Are Climate Models Overstating Warming?
by Ross McKitrick A number of authors, including the IPCC, have argued that climate models have systematically overstated the rate of global warming in recent decades. A recent paper by Millar et al....
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Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater...
by Nic Lewis A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming. Last week a paper predicting greater than expected global...
View ArticleEnergy budgets, climate system domains and internal variability
by Dan Hughes It is not a boundary value problem. Abstract The total energy equation is applied to Earth’s entire atmosphere and sub-systems to investigate requirements that the energy content of...
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Of boundary and initial conditions
by Dan Hughes and Tomas Milanovic Further reflections on the application of the divergence theorem to the Earth’s climate system. Introduction The subject of a recent post at CE was application of the...
View ArticleClimate uncertainty & risk
by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk. It’s been about 5 years since I’ve written a new article on this topic; this article provides my current...
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Uncertainty in climate projections
by Judith Curry My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations. About the U.S. CLIVAR program: US Climate Variability and Predictability...
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Warming patterns are unlikely to explain low historical estimates of climate...
By Nic Lewis A critique of of a new paper by Andrews et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity. Plain language summary A new paper led...
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A Test of the Tropical 200-300 mb Warming Rate in Climate Models
by Ross McKitrick I sat down to write a description of my new paper with John Christy, but when I looked up a reference via Google Scholar something odd cropped up that requires a brief digression....
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Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on...
by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other...
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Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions
By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming...
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Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?
by Nic Lewis There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. My analysis of these...
View ArticleWhy climate predictions are so difficult
by Judith Curry An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens. Frank Bosse provided this Google translation of an interview published in Der Spiegel -Print-Issue 13/2019, p. 99-101. March 22, 2019...
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Escape from model land
by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” –...
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Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2
By Nic Lewis In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis and Curry 2018 (LC18) by Kevin Cowtan and Peter Jacobs (CJ20), and a Reply from myself and Judith Curry recently published by...
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Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry...
by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons. Introduction Zeke Hausfather et al. (2019)...
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Analysis of a carbon forecast gone wrong: the case of the IPCC FAR
by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador The IPCC’s First Assessment Report (FAR) made forecasts or projections of future concentrations of carbon dioxide that turned out to be too high. From 1990 to 2018, the...
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Inconsistency between historical and future CMIP5 simulations
by Kenneth Fritsch Identification of significant differences between the historical and future CMIP5 simulations for intrinsic climate sensitivities. Introduction There are a number of climate science...
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Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050
by Judith Curry A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability –...
View ArticleStructural errors in global climate models
by Gerald Browning Climate model sensitivity to CO2 is heavily dependent on artificial parameterizations (e.g. clouds, convection) that are implemented in global climate models that utilize the wrong...
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Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and...
By Nic Lewis This is a brief comment on a new paper[i] by a mathematician in the Exeter Climate Systems group, Femke Nijsse, and two better known colleagues, Peter Cox and Mark Williamson. I note that...
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New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming
by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better. The papers are...
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Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS
by Kenneth Fritsch Abstract. An analysis is presented of he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST...
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Compensation between cloud feedback + ECS and aerosol-cloud forcing in CMIP6...
By Nic Lewis An important paper, Wang et al.[1], on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models...
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