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Santer on timescales of temperature trends
by Judith Curry Santer et al. have a new paper in press entitled “Separating Signal and Noise in Atmospheric Temperature Changes: The Importance of Time Scale.” Separating Signal and Noise in...
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Climate models as ink blots
by Judith Curry From Roger Pielke Jr.: A fundamental problem with climate science in the public realm, as conventionally practiced by the IPCC, is the essential ink blot nature of its presentation. By...
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Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification in scientific computing
by Judith Curry I think I am gaining some insight into the debate between scientists versus engineers regarding climate model verification and validation. For background, the previous relevant posts at...
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Self-organizing model of the atmosphere
by Frank Lemke A recent post in our Global Warming Prediction Project discusses the question “What Drives Global Warming?” based on a self-organized interdependent nonlinear dynamic system of equations...
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What can we learn from climate models? Part II
by Judith Curry In my original essay on this topic October 2010, my short answer to this question was “I’m not sure.” My current thinking on this topic reframes the question in the context of fitness...
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U.S. weather prediction: falling behind
by Judith Curry “It’s a national embarrassment. It has resulted in large unnecessary costs for the U.S. economy and needless endangerment of our citizens. And it shouldn’t be occurring. What am I...
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Assessing climate model software quality
by Anonymous [O]ur notion of software quality with respect to climate models is theoretically and conceptually vague. It is not clear to us what differentiates high from low quality software; nor is it...
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UQ
by Judith Curry The new International Journal of Uncertainty Quantification has some very interesting papers. Lets take a look at a paper entitled ‘Error and Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity...
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CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
by Judith Curry The CMIP5 decadal simulations are now available for seven climate models. The first intercomparison results have just been published. Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction...
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Climate models at their limit?
by Judith Curry Estimates of climate-change impacts will get less, rather than more, certain. But this should not excuse inaction, say Mark Maslin and Patrick Austin. A recent article was published in...
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Philosophical reflections on climate model projections
by Judith Curry Should probabilistic qualities be assigned to climate model projections? Are the approaches used by the IPCC for assessing climate model projection quality – confidence building,...
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National Strategy for Advancing Climate Models
by Judith Curry Overall, climate modeling has made enormous progress in the past several decades, but meeting the information needs of users will require further advances in the coming decades. – NRC...
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Climate model discussion thread
by Judith Curry My perspective on climate models (uncertainty monster, DOE presentation, RS presentation) have been regarded as outside the ‘mainstream’. Here are some new papers by leading climate...
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Clouds and MAGIC
by Judith Curry Ocean clouds obscure warming’s fate, create ‘fundamental’ problems for models. – Paul Voosen . Paul Voosen has two extensive articles clouds and climate: To find warming’s speed,...
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Condensation-driven winds: An update
by Anastassia Makarieva, Victor Gorshkov, Douglas Sheil, Antonio Nobre, Larry Li It’s official: our controversial paper has been published. After a burst of intense attention (some of you may remember...
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Spinning the climate model – observation comparison
by Judith Curry In the past 6 months or so, we have seen numerous different plots of the CMIP5 climate model simulations versus observations. The first such plot that I saw was produced by John Christy...
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Direct Statistical Simulation
by Judith Curry [A] technique called direct statistical simulation dramatically reduces the time and brute-force computing that current simulation techniques require. The process does a good job of...
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UK MSM on climate sensitivity
by Judith Curry If climate scientists were credit-rating agencies, climate sensitivity would be on negative watch. But it would not yet be downgraded. – The Economist Over the past few weeks, there...
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What are climate models missing?
by Judith Curry Rather than reducing biases stemming from an inadequate representation of basic processes, additional complexity has multiplied the ways in which these biases introduce uncertainties in...
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How should we interpret an ensemble of models? Part I: Weather models
by Judith Curry Over the last two weeks, there have been some interesting exchanges in the blogosphere on the topic of interpreting an ensemble of models. rgbatduke kicked off the exchange with a...
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